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真假繁荣·出生人口创新低·人均可支配收入28228元

1月21日,国家统计局发布的数据显示,初步核算,2018年我国国内生产总值90.0309万亿元,中国经济总量首次突破90万亿

按可比价格计算,GDP同比增长6.6%,完成年度计划。

国家统计局表示,2018年国民经济继续运行在合理区间,实现了总体平稳、稳中有进。同时也要看到,经济运行稳中有变、变中有忧,外部环境复杂严峻,经济面临下行压力,前进中的问题必须有针对性地解决。

中国经济“减速”压力

与“增质”潜力交叠

分季度看,GDP一季度同比增长6.8%,二季度增长6.7%,三季度增长6.5%,四季度增长6.4%。四个季度分别环比微降。

工银国际首席经济学家程实表示,数据表明中国经济“减速”压力与“增质”潜力交叠。2018年四季度,前期的内部改革阵痛和外部贸易摩擦的滞后冲击加速显现,强化了中国经济“减速”压力,四季度中国经济同比增速为6.4%,2018年全年经济增速下滑至6.6%。

华泰宏观李超团队点评称,预计2019全年经济增速继续下滑到6.3%左右,今年减税降费累计将超2018年总体水平。货币政策预计将逐渐由灵活适度转向稳健略宽松。预计上半年政策将着力改善小微企业经营环境、以及应对可能的失业率上行问题。基于稳增长的考量,政策方面给出明确信号,要引导金融机构保障融资平台公司合理融资需求,我们仍较为看好基建类城投债的表现。

国家统计局局长宁吉喆表示,经济增长率有所回落,是在预料之中,在如此错综复杂的国际大环境下,我们能够保持经济运行在合理区间是很不容易的,成绩来之不易,当然问题也必须高度重视。我们有信心、有条件、有基础,也有能力保持2019年中国经济运行在合理区间。

新产业增长较快

经济结构持续优化

分产业看,第一产业增加值6.4734万亿元,同比增长3.5%;第二产业增加值36.6001万亿元,增长5.8%;第三产业增加值46.9575万亿元,增长7.6%。 

其中工业生产平稳增长,新产业增长较快。值得注意的是,高技术制造业、战略性新兴产业和装备制造业增加值分别比上年增长11.7%、8.9%和8.1%,增速分别比规模以上工业快5.5、2.7和1.9个百分点。

高技术制造业、装备制造业投资比上年分别增长16.1%和11.1%,分别比制造业投资快6.6和1.6个百分点。

程实认为,在“增速”承压之际,中国经济“增质”仍在稳步改善。2018年新产业增长较快,表明经济结构持续优化。较之于制造业总体,高技术制造业、装备制造业投资的同比增速分别高出6.6个和1.6个百分点,表明制造业高端化发展的势头保持强劲。

此外,服务业保持较快发展,2018年全国服务业生产指数比上年增长7.7%。其中,战略性新兴服务业、科技服务业和高技术服务业企业营业收入同比分别增长14.9%、15.0%和13.4%。

人均可支配收入与经济增速基本同步

数据显示,我国居民收入消费稳定增长,农村居民收支增速快于城镇。

2018年全国居民人均可支配收入28228元,比上年名义增长8.7%,扣除价格因素实际增长6.5%,快于人均GDP增速,与经济增长基本同步。

2018年全国居民人均消费支出19853元,比上年名义增长8.4%,增速比上年加快1.3个百分点;扣除价格因素实际增长6.2%,比上年加快0.8个百分点。

全国居民人均可支配收入中位数24336元,比上年名义增长8.6%。

在居民收入增长的同时,居民消费价格温和上涨落。2018年年居民消费价格比上年上涨2.1%,处于温和上涨区间,低于3%左右的预期目标。其中,城市上涨2.1%,农村上涨2.1%。

“三驾马车”增速同比下滑

内外部需求疲弱共振

在投资方面,2018年全国固定资产投资(不含农户)63.5636万亿元,比上年增长5.9%,增速比前三季度加快0.5个百分点。其中,民间投资39.4051万亿元,增长8.7%,比上年加快2.7个百分点。2018年基础设施投资增长3.8%。

程实表示,2018年民间投资同比增速加快,表明供给侧改革正在走向“2.0”阶段,市场力量对优质供给的扩张作用初步显现。2018年1-12月基础设施投资同比增长3.8%,增速比1-11月份提升0.1个百分点,表明基建“稳增长”效应正在显现。

在消费方面,全年社会消费品零售总额380987亿元,比上年增长9.0%,保持较快增长。

在进出口方面,全年货物进出口总额30.5050万亿元,比上年增长9.7%;贸易总量首次超过30万亿元,创历史新高。其中,出口164177亿元,增长7.1%;进口140874亿元,增长12.9%。顺差为23303亿元,比上年收窄18.3%。

程实认为,从结构来看,内外部需求的疲弱正在产生共振。投资方面,2018年固定资产投资同比增速仅为5.9%,较上年下滑1.3个百分点;消费方面,全年社会消费品零售总额同比增速为9.0%,较上年下降1.2个百分点;出口方面,2018年12月出口同比增速降至-4.4%,表明“抢出口”开始退潮。

“考虑到近期PMI新出口订单持续下行的滞后影响,叠加‘高基数’效应,外需回落的压力预计将在2019年进一步延续。”程实表示。

房地产投资同比增速回落

未来地产政策或放松

数据显示,2018年全年全国房地产开发投资12.0264万亿元,比上年增长9.5%。全国商品房销售面积171654万平方米,增长1.3%,其中住宅销售面积增长2.2%。全国商品房销售额149973亿元,增长12.2%,其中住宅销售额增长14.7%。

华泰宏观李超团队点评称,2018年全国房地产开发投资累计同比增速为9.5%,回落0.2个百分点。值得关注的,房地产竣工增速为下降7.8%,降幅比1-11月份收窄4.5个百分点,这反映出房地产企业赶工以应对未来政策变动的倾向。房地产产业链较长,对我国宏观经济影响较大,在经济下行压力凸显的情况下,我们预计,2019年年中一二线地产政策可能会有所放松。

2018年出生人口1523万

为1952年以来最低

数据显示,2018年末,中国大陆总人口13.9538亿人,比上年末增加530万人。

2018年全年出生人口1523万人,人口出生率为10.94‰,为1952年该数据存在以来最低,前值12.43‰;死亡人口993万人,人口死亡率为7.13‰,前值7.11‰;人口自然增长率为3.81‰,为1961年以来最低,前值5.32‰。

对于近期网传中国人口负增长、人口红利消失的言论,国家统计局局长宁吉喆回应称,2018年中国人口保持正增长,全年出生人口1523万人,其中相当比例是二胎,这个数字是很可观的,而且劳动年龄人口仍有约9亿人,中国的人口红利仍然存在。

2018年,中国总人口性别比为104.64(以女性为100)。城镇常住人口比上年末增加1790万人;乡村常住人口减少1260万人;城镇化率59.58%,比上年末提高1.06个百分点。

就业形势保持稳定。2018年末全国就业人员7.7586亿人,其中城镇就业人员4.3419亿人,农民工总量2.8836亿人,比上年增加184万人,增长0.6%。农民工月均收入水平3721元,比上年增长6.8%。

2018年城镇新增就业1361万人,比上年多增10万人,连续6年保持在1300万人以上,完成全年目标的123.7%。

“三去一降一补”扎实推进

经济结构优化

2018年,供给侧结构性改革深入推进,经济转型升级态势持续,“三去一降一补”重点任务扎实推进。

去产能方面,钢铁、煤炭年度去产能任务提前完成,全国工业产能利用率为76.5%;去杠杆方面,企业资产负债率下降,11月末规模以上工业企业资产负债率为56.8%,同比下降0.4个百分点;去库存方面,年末全国商品房待售面积5.2414万平方米,比上年末下降11.0%。

降成本方面,企业成本继续下降,1-11月规模以上工业企业每百元主营业务收入中的成本为84.19元,比上年同期减少0.21元;补短板方面,薄弱环节投资较快增长。全年生态保护和环境治理业、农业投资分别增长43.0%和15.4%,分别快于全部投资37.1和9.5个百分点。

经济结构继续优化。全年第三产业增加值占国内生产总值的比重为52.2%,比上年提高0.3个百分点;对国内生产总值增长的贡献率为59.7%,比上年提高0.1个百分点。

消费作为经济增长主动力作用进一步巩固,最终消费支出对国内生产总值增长的贡献率为76.2%,比上年提高18.6个百分点。居民消费升级提质。全国居民恩格尔系数为28.4%,比上年下降0.9个百分点。

A股呈普涨格局

沪指成功站上2600点

1月21日,沪深两市股指集体小幅高开,随后两市一路震荡走高。沪指成功站上2600点。创业板指走势较主板稍强。

盘面上没有强势领涨板块,出现普涨格局,下跌板块的跌幅均不大。

截至午盘,沪指上涨0.67%,报收2613点;深成指上涨0.83%,报收7644点;创业板指上涨0.86%,报收1280点。沪股通净流入6.03亿,深股通净流入14.6亿。

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